XRP ETF Could Outrun BTC & ETH – $5B Inflows Forecast, Ready to Ride?

After the successful launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have already attracted billions of dollars from large investors, attention is now turning toward XRP. Analysts believe that an XRP ETF, if approved in 2025, could trigger one of the biggest waves of institutional investment in the crypto sector so far. Some estimates suggest that within the first month alone, an XRP ETF could bring in as much as $5 billion in inflows, possibly surpassing Ethereum’s ETF debut and pushing XRP’s price close to $5 by the end of the year.

This growing speculation comes as more asset managers join the race to file applications. Companies like Canary Capital, 21Shares, and Bitwise have submitted proposals to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), hoping to be the first to bring a spot XRP ETF to market. Prediction markets that allow users to bet on such events are giving the XRP ETF an 86% chance of being approved by the end of 2025, a significant rise from earlier in the year. If accurate, this would mark a major turning point for Ripple’s token, which has long faced regulatory challenges in the United States.

Why an XRP ETF Matters

To understand the excitement, it helps to look at what ETFs are. An ETF is a financial product that allows investors to gain exposure to an asset, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, or potentially XRP, without having to directly buy, store, or manage the token themselves. For many large funds, pension plans, and banks, ETFs provide an easier and safer way to invest in crypto.

Bitcoin ETFs, which launched earlier in 2025, have already pulled in over $50 billion in assets. Ethereum ETFs followed a few months later, with billions more in inflows. If XRP manages to join this group, it would become one of the very few cryptocurrencies with mainstream, regulated investment products available in U.S. markets.

XRP has a unique advantage because of its use in cross-border payments. Ripple, the company behind XRP, has positioned the token as a tool for fast and inexpensive international money transfers. This utility may appeal to institutions seeking diversification beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are primarily viewed as a store of value and a decentralized computing platform, respectively.

The optimistic projections are supported by both market activity and regulatory progress. On-chain data from Ripple’s network shows that daily transactions now average around 1.5 million, with volumes reaching about $1.2 billion. These figures highlight steady demand for the token’s payment features.

Canary Capital’s CEO, in an interview with Bloomberg, predicted inflows of $5 billion in the first month of an XRP ETF launch. Other analysts estimate a range of $5–$8.4 billion. If that happens, liquidity in XRP markets would increase sharply, making it easier for both retail and institutional investors to trade. Price forecasts linked to such an event suggest XRP could climb into the $3.65–$5.80 range, depending on overall sentiment in crypto markets.

Regulatory Progress and Court Decisions

A big reason for renewed confidence in XRP is Ripple’s legal progress. In July 2023, a U.S. court ruled that XRP is not considered a security when sold to retail investors. This ruling cleared one of the largest hurdles to ETF approval, as securities laws had been the main reason regulators hesitated to allow XRP-based products.

Since then, momentum has grown. Ethereum ETFs gained approval in May 2024, showing that the SEC is becoming more open to crypto ETFs under new legislation such as the GENIUS Act. Bloomberg analysts now give a 95% chance that ETFs for tokens like XRP, Solana, and Litecoin will be approved sometime in 2025. The SEC is expected to make final decisions between October and December of this year.

Optimism vs. Caution

While the outlook is positive, not everyone agrees on the potential impact. Some experts argue that too much institutional involvement could reduce the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies. One analyst even referred to the XRP ETF as “the beginning of the end,” warning that heavy reliance on Wall Street could change the spirit of crypto.

Others are more cautious about XRP’s price potential. While optimistic scenarios place XRP at $20–$50 if ETFs succeed and adoption surges, more conservative forecasts limit the token’s price to around $5. This range reflects the uncertainty that still exists in the market, especially given XRP’s history of volatility.

Prediction platforms like Polymarket also show divided opinions, with betting odds fluctuating between 81% and 88% for approval. Bearish traders point to possible technical weaknesses in XRP’s price charts that could limit gains.

Timeline of Key Events

• July 2023 – Court rules XRP is not a security for retail sales.

• May 2024 – Ethereum ETFs approved in the U.S.

• August 2025 – Canary Capital files for a spot XRP ETF.

• October–December 2025 – SEC scheduled to issue decisions on applications.

• 2025 projections – $5 billion inflows expected, with XRP potentially reaching $5.80.

Technical indicators currently show XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53, a level that suggests the token has room to rise if it breaks resistance at $3.

Final Outlook

The push for an XRP ETF could redefine how money flows into alternative cryptocurrencies. If approved, the product would open doors for billions of dollars in new investments, strengthen XRP’s role in global finance, and possibly set new standards for other tokens seeking mainstream acceptance.

However, success will depend on more than hype. Regulatory clarity, investor adoption, and Ripple’s continued progress in building real-world use cases will all be critical. In the end, an XRP ETF may not only be about one token, it could signal how much further traditional finance is willing to embrace the broader crypto economy.