After Months in the Pit, TOSHI Surge Raises Questions About Hype vs Real Growth

The blue cat meme coin TOSHI made a dramatic comeback on September 17, jumping 83% in a single day to reach an eight-month high of $0.0011. This surge followed new listings on major exchanges, sparking excitement across the Base blockchain community. Yet, while some see this as the start of lasting momentum, others worry it could be another short-lived pump in the highly unpredictable meme coin space.

TOSHI had been stuck in a slump for much of 2025. After reaching a peak of $0.002273 in January, its price crashed by 75%, sliding below $0.0005 in March and staying there for months. For many holders, it looked like the hype had run out. Everything changed in mid-September. Announcements of perpetual futures listings on Binance and spot trading on South Korea’s Upbit exchange sent TOSHI soaring almost overnight. Trading activity exploded, with daily volume climbing to $646.9 million a 1,044% increase from the day before. On-chain data showed over 1.2 million transactions, as traders rushed to capitalize.

 

 

Base Chain and the Meme Ecosystem

TOSHI is no ordinary meme coin. It was inspired by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s cat and also nods to Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Since its fair launch in 2023, TOSHI has promoted an image of community ownership without relying on paid influencers. Today, it claims over 1 million holders. The community has built tools like ToshiMart, a decentralized exchange (DEX) launchpad that pairs tokens directly with TOSHI, and NFToshies, a themed NFT collection. These efforts are seen as attempts to add substance beyond simple speculation. Still, critics argue that real utility is limited.

 

 

Part of TOSHI’s momentum comes from the growth of Base, Coinbase’s Layer-2 blockchain. In the third quarter of 2025, Base’s total value locked (TVL) has surpassed $5 billion,, supported by new features like zkEVM upgrades, which reduced transaction fees to under one cent. Base has quickly become known for its meme coin culture, with TOSHI seen as its unofficial mascot. The scene mirrors Solana’s 2024 “cat coin” craze, where tokens like POPCAT and MOG surged by hundreds of percent.

Despite the rally, warning signs are flashing. On trading charts, the relative strength index (RSI) for TOSHI recently hit 75, which suggests the token is in “overbought” territory. In plain terms, this means the price may have risen too far, too quickly, and a 20–30% pullback could happen soon especially if Bitcoin itself dips below $110,000. Another concern is the role of bots. On-chain data suggests that around 40% of TOSHI’s trading volume during the surge came from automated trading, raising questions about how much of the rally reflects genuine investor demand.

Milestones Along TOSHI’s Journey

Event	Date	Price Impact
Fair Launch on Base	April 2023	$0.0001 debut; 500K holders in weeks.
Coinbase Listing	Dec 2023	+150%; first Base meme coin on a major exchange.
All-Time High	Jan 2025	$0.002273; peak of cat-coin hype.
Summer Slump	March 2025	$0.0004; 75% decline.
Upbit & Binance Listings	Sept 17, 2025	+83%; volume increased 24x.

This rollercoaster timeline highlights TOSHI’s ups and downs, showing both its potential and its volatility.

What Comes Next?

Predictions for TOSHI’s future vary. Some believe its price could average $0.000956 in 2025 and possibly reach $0.004567 if it gets listed on more major exchanges. Others are more cautious, expecting the price to hover around $0.0015 unless TOSHI forms new partnerships or adds useful features. Currently, the price is supported at $0.0008, and breaking through the resistance at $0.0012 could show how strong the rally is. If TOSHI can break this resistance and keep going up, it might become the leading meme coin on the Base platform. Otherwise, it might fall back into a long period of low activity.

TOSHI’s rally in September highlights how important exchange listings are in the meme coin world. With community support, a fair launch, and connections to the expanding Base ecosystem, TOSHI has strong branding. However, without clear long-term uses, its future will depend on whether it can move beyond just hype. For now, TOSHI represents the unpredictable nature of meme coins, it can jump 80% in a day but might lose those gains just as quickly. The key question is whether this recent surge is the start of steady growth or just another temporary rise.