Novogratz Predicts a New Era: Crypto Cycles May End as Policy Sparks Mass Adoption

For more than a decade, cryptocurrency markets have followed a familiar pattern. Every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a “halving,” reducing the number of new coins produced. This event has historically triggered waves of excitement, rapid price rises, and then sharp crashes. Investors learned to expect a boom-and-bust rhythm like clockwork. But according to Mike Novogratz, the founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, that cycle may soon become history.

On September 23, 2025, in an interview, Novogratz argued that new U.S. legislation is changing the game. Instead of waiting for the next halving to drive growth, he believes government policies are about to bring in a huge wave of new users and institutions, potentially breaking the old four-year cycle.

The Policy Shift That Could Change Everything

Two pieces of legislation lie at the heart of this shift, the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act. Together, they aim to bring stability and consistency to the U.S. crypto market.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a fixed value, often tied to the U.S. dollar. Until now, they have existed in a gray area, with major platforms like Apple andGoogle  reluctant to allow them in mainstream applications. The GENIUS Act changes that, making stablecoins more trustworthy and easier to integrate into everyday apps. This could mean that in the near future, sending money through a social media app or paying bills from a smartphone could involve stablecoins instead of traditional bank transfers.

The CLARITY Act is equally important. For years, disputes between U.S. regulators like the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have created uncertainty. By dividing responsibilities more clearly, this law could make it easier for companies to innovate without fear of sudden enforcement actions.

Novogratz’s Argument: Beyond the Four-Year Cycle

Novogratz explained that these laws together act as “bookends of legislation,” setting the stage for mass adoption. In his view, the typical four-year boom-and-bust cycle driven by Bitcoin’s halving may no longer dominate the market. Instead, new users, businesses, and financial institutions could join the space steadily, supported by the confidence that comes from clear rules. He also pointed out that while Bitcoin recently faced a $200 billion market correction, this may not signal the start of another long downturn. Instead, he sees it as a temporary “pullback” in a much larger growth story fueled by regulatory clarity.

The crypto community has reacted strongly to Novogratz’s comments. Supporters argue that the GENIUS Act gives stablecoins legitimacy, opening the door for everyday people to use them without fear. Analysts believe this could lead to trillions of dollars entering the market as mainstream adoption accelerates. Others are more cautious. Some critics worry that politics could interfere, especially with ongoing debates in Washington about the role of cryptocurrencies. They warn that even strong legislation could face delays or resistance, which might limit the impact in the short term. Despite the differing opinions, there is agreement that policy changes are now central to crypto’s future something that has not always been the case in an industry long driven by technology and speculation.

What This Could Mean for Investors and Users

If Novogratz is right, the future of cryptocurrency may look very different from its past. Instead of dramatic rises followed by painful crashes, adoption could expand more steadily. Everyday users may find it easier to buy, hold, and use digital assets through familiar platforms like smartphones and banking apps. Institutions, including large asset managers such as BlackRock, may also feel more comfortable investing heavily in crypto once the rules are clear. This could drive demand for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets, potentially pushing prices to new highs. Novogratz has suggested that Bitcoin could move well past $100,000 if adoption grows at the scale he envisions.

Mike Novogratz’s prediction challenges one of the oldest assumptions in the crypto industry, that Bitcoin’s halving cycle controls the market. With the introduction of the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts, the U.S. may be laying the groundwork for a new phase of growth driven by policy, not just technology. If successful, these laws could bring millions of new users into the crypto space, encourage institutional investment, and make digital assets a normal part of everyday financial life. Whether this truly ends the four-year cycle or simply reshapes it remains to be seen, but one thing is clear, regulation is no longer the enemy of crypto it may be the key to its next chapter.