Bitcoin’s October Lows Threat, Analyst Predicts Retest — Bear Trap or Bullish Reset?

A recent warning from a respected market analyst has sent ripples through the crypto community, Bitcoin may revisit its October lows. After recent price action showed resistance near $115,300 to $117,000, this message raises the alarm for both cautious and hopeful investors alike. Is this a return to weakness, or a reset that sets the stage for a stronger rebound?

On October 13, 2025, analyst suggested a 60–75% probability that Bitcoin will retest support levels between $108,000 and $109,500. According to his view, Bitcoin recently approached a supply zone (an area where many sellers are present), but failed to break through decisively. After touching a high near $115,963, it dropped to around $111,800, losing roughly 3.5%. Some data points support caution. Stablecoin inflows money entering the market meant for trading have delivered $590 million in USDT to Binance. This suggests that many participants expect a dip and may be positioning for a bounce. But if sentiment sours or momentum is lost, those large inflows could amplify a downward move, triggering further decline.

Technically, the market shows mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 70, indicating room before becoming overbought. However, many altcoins are sharply falling some down 40–70% with only about 10% of them trading above their 200-day moving averages. This reflects broad hesitation in the market, which could make large dips more plausible than sustained rallies.

Key Metrics to Understand

To make this warning clearer, the following table explains some of the technical indicators and market behavior:

 

Term	What It Measures	Current Indicator & What It Implies
Supply Zone	Price area where many sellers enter	$115,300–$117,000 — Bitcoin is struggling here
Retest	Returning to a prior support level	Predicted toward $108,000–$109,500
Stablecoin Inflows	Cash entering the market ready to trade	$590M into Binance — could act as support or fuel volatility
RSI (Relative Strength Index)	Measures how overbought or oversold an asset is	Below 70 — not yet overbought, potential room up or down
200-Day Moving Average (200DMA)	Long-term trend indicator	Few altcoins above it — trend strength uncertain

 

Understanding these indicators helps investors see why the retest warning is not frivolous: while inflows show interest, weak momentum and retreat from resistance may create downward pressure.

What Could Happen if Bitcoin Retests?

If Bitcoin moves down toward $108,000, several scenarios may unfold.

1. Bear Trap Turned Bullish Reset
Support at these levels may hold. If buyers see value and step in, this retest could purge weak hands and spark a strong recovery. With renewed momentum, some predict a squeeze upward toward $130,000 or even higher.

2. Retest Fails and Weakness Continues
If downside pressure builds and support breaks, Bitcoin could slip closer to $100,000 or lower. This would be a troubling sign for market structure and could drag altcoins further down.

3. Sideways Compression
Rather than a dramatic move up or down, the market might enter a consolidation phase trading within a range while waiting for clearer direction or catalysts like regulatory news, macroeconomic data, or major capital flows.

Bitcoin has traded in a volatile environment lately. Trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and global macro shifts can tip sentiment quickly. Large inflows of stablecoins often reflect investor readiness for action either expecting a bounce or preparing for a dip. A retest from here is not purely negative. In many markets, healthy pullbacks are necessary for sustained bull runs. They remove speculative excess, allow for accumulation by stronger hands, and build a firmer foundation for future gains. However, timing and momentum are critical. If support cracks before new capital enters convincingly, the path down can accelerate.

What Investors Should Watch Next

• Does Bitcoin break above $115,300–$117,000 convincingly? That could invalidate the retest scenario.
• How stable are stablecoin inflows? Are they continuing or withdrawing?
• Will support zones around $109,500 to $108,000 hold under pressure?
• How do altcoins behave? If they collapse further, broad sentiment may drag Bitcoin too.
• Are there any significant regulatory or macro announcements? These surprises tend to shift sentiment fast.

Final Thought

The retest warning is important and should be taken seriously. For long-term holders, it might be a chance to reset. Traders should watch how Bitcoin behaves around important support levels. If Bitcoin shows strength, it could rise significantly. However, if it shows weakness, the decline might be sharper than expected.

The rest of 2025 is likely to be important for Bitcoin’s story. Whether this retest leads to growth or a fall will show if Bitcoin remains strong or faces challenges. Investors and observers need to be ready for both outcomes and keep a close eye on market indicators, trends, and price movements.