Crypto Industry Outlook 2026: Stablecoins, AI, and Privacy Shifts

• a16z crypto sees stablecoins evolving into a core internet settlement layer through improved onramps and banking integration.
• Crypto-native tokenization shifts focus from mirroring TradFi assets to onchain origination and perpetual-style instruments.
• AI agents, privacy infrastructure, and clearer legal frameworks emerge as prerequisites for scalable crypto adoption.

a16z crypto has released a detailed outline of 17 focus areas it expects to shape the crypto industry in 2026, highlighting structural shifts across payments, tokenization, artificial intelligence, privacy, and legal frameworks. The themes were published as part of the firm’s annual “big ideas” series, drawing on contributions from partners and researchers across its crypto, infrastructure, and applications teams.

A central theme in the outlook is the continued expansion of stablecoins as a core settlement layer. According to the analysis, stablecoins recorded an estimated $46 trillion in transaction volume last year, exceeding PayPal volumes by more than twenty times and approaching those of large card and clearing networks.

While onchain transfers are already fast and low-cost, the report notes that onramps and offramps remain a bottleneck. New providers are working to connect stablecoins directly to local payment rails, cards, and bank-to-bank systems, allowing digital dollars to integrate with existing financial infrastructure.

The outlook also describes stablecoins as a practical workaround for legacy banking systems. Rather than replacing core banking ledgers, tokenized deposits, treasuries, and stablecoins allow institutions to introduce new products without rewriting decades-old software. This approach is framed as a way to accelerate innovation while maintaining regulatory compatibility.

Tokenization Becomes More Crypto-Native

The report distinguishes between traditional tokenization and crypto-native design. While interest in bringing equities, commodities, and credit onchain continues, contributors emphasize that many current models mirror offchain structures.

By contrast, instruments such as perpetual futures are cited as examples of crypto-native representations that offer deeper liquidity and simpler deployment. A similar distinction is made in stablecoins and credit markets, where onchain origination of debt is highlighted as a way to reduce servicing costs and improve accessibility compared with offchain loans that are later tokenized.

Agents, AI, and New Economic Models

Another major focus is the rise of autonomous agents. As AI systems increasingly transact on behalf of users or organizations, the report introduces the concept of “know your agent,” arguing that cryptographic identity and credentials are required before agents can participate in financial systems. AI is also described as being used for substantive research tasks, including mathematical reasoning and discovery, supported by multi-agent workflows.

At the same time, the expansion of AI agents is described as placing economic pressure on the open web. The report outlines an “invisible tax” created when agents extract data without compensating content providers, pointing to the need for real-time, usage-based payment models.

Privacy, Security, and Legal Alignment

Privacy is presented as a defining competitive factor for blockchains, particularly as public systems allow easy cross-chain movement. Decentralized, quantum-resistant messaging and onchain data access controls are also highlighted as infrastructure priorities.

Finally, the report argues that the full potential of blockchains depends on legal frameworks that better align with how decentralized networks operate, noting that clearer market structure rules could replace uncertainty with standardized paths for development.