HBAR’s ETF Delay, Can $0.20 Support Hold Until November?

Hedera’s native token, HBAR, faced a major setback on September 18, 2025. Many investors were waiting for a decision from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on two exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications linked to HBAR. Instead of approval, the SEC chose to delay both filings, pushing the final decision date to November 8, 2025.

The filings included Canary Capital’s proposal for a spot HBAR ETF and Grayscale’s plan to convert its existing Hedera Trust. Both were expected to bring more legitimacy and institutional money into Hedera’s ecosystem. Instead, the SEC said it needed more time to review public comments, check compliance with Nasdaq’s listing rules, and study whether Hedera’s technology fits within investor-protection standards. This move created disappointment in the market. HBAR quickly dropped by more than 5%, falling to $0.24 before recovering slightly to $0.244. Trading volume doubled to around $340 million as some investors sold out of fear, while others saw the dip as a buying opportunity.

Bitcoin and Ethereum both saw significant inflows when their spot ETFs were approved, with billions of dollars entering the market. Many in the Hedera community believed HBAR could follow a similar path if given the green light.

Hedera also stands out from many smaller crypto projects. Its governing council includes companies such as Google, IBM, and Boeing. Real-world use cases already exist on its network, including tokenized foreign exchange trades with Lloyds Bank and stock redemption trials with Swarm Markets. These examples show that Hedera is not just a speculative project but a platform being tested for practical financial applications.

The SEC has a long history of delaying crypto ETF applications. Bitcoin ETFs, for example, took years to get approval. Regulators often claim they need more time to evaluate risks such as price manipulation or investor protection. While frustrating for traders, these delays do not always mean rejection. In fact, approval sometimes follows after enough safeguards are in place. For HBAR, this delay could give Hedera more time to demonstrate its growing adoption. With low transaction fees and an enterprise-grade network, it has already attracted serious corporate interest. The challenge is convincing regulators that the token and its markets are mature enough for mainstream investment products.

The Hedera community reacted strongly to the delay. Many long-term holders expressed frustration but said they plan to use the dip as a buying opportunity. Some compared the situation to early Bitcoin ETF delays, arguing that patience could eventually pay off with larger gains once approval arrives. Others are more cautious. Critics worry that if HBAR breaks below $0.20, it could fall further toward $0.15, which would damage investor confidence. For them, November’s final deadline is the true test, and until then, the token may remain under pressure.

The delay affects more than just short-term price action. For retail traders, the 5% drop erased around $500 million in market value. For institutions considering Hedera for tokenization projects, the pause may slow adoption until ETF clarity is provided. The broader crypto market is also watching closely, since several other altcoin ETF applications, including Polkadot and Litecoin, are experiencing similar delays. If HBAR can hold above $0.20, it will show resilience despite regulatory uncertainty. Breaking below that level, however, could signal weakness and push the price lower. On the other hand, if the SEC approves the ETF in November, HBAR could see significant inflows similar to Ethereum’s $10 billion surge after its ETF launch, potentially pushing prices toward $0.50 in early 2026.

The Road Ahead For HBAR

The next few weeks will be crucial. Analysts note that HBAR’s trading patterns show the possibility of a rebound toward $0.30–$0.35 if broader market conditions remain positive, especially if Bitcoin continues trading strongly. November 8 is now the key date. Since this is the final deadline under SEC rules, investors will know whether Hedera will secure its ETF or face rejection. Even if the SEC says no, Hedera still has strong fundamentals. Its partnerships with major corporations, role in central bank digital currency pilots, and proven use cases in tokenized finance all suggest that its long-term future is not tied to a single ETF decision. Approval, however, would accelerate adoption and bring much larger investment flows into the ecosystem.

HBAR’s ETF delay was a disappointment, but not the end of the story. The SEC has slowed the process before for other cryptocurrencies, only to eventually allow ETFs after years of review. Whether HBAR holds $0.20 or dips lower, November’s final decision will be a turning point. If approved, Hedera could step onto the same stage as Bitcoin and Ethereum in institutional markets. If not, its ongoing partnerships and enterprise adoption still provide a strong foundation for growth.