Polymarket Plans a U.S. Return in November 2025: A New Era for Blockchain Prediction Markets

Polymarket, one of the largest blockchain-based prediction platforms, is preparing for a possible return to the United States after years of restrictions. This development has created excitement across the crypto and forecasting communities, as the platform is known for producing highly accurate predictions during major events. Its potential relaunch in November 2025 raises an important question for the digital prediction industry: is this the beginning of a more regulated, trustworthy era, or a risky step that could stir new regulatory challenges?

Polymarket operates on the Polygon blockchain and has become widely recognized for offering markets that allow users to bet on real-world outcomes in a simple yes-or-no format. During the 2024 U.S. election, the platform attracted significant attention by generating 3.8 billion dollars in trading volume and achieving around 94 percent accuracy in its prediction outcomes. These numbers strengthened its reputation, but the momentum was limited by a major barrier: the platform was inaccessible to U.S. users.

In 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charged Polymarket for operating unregistered swap markets, which resulted in a ban on U.S. IP addresses. Since then, the platform has been restricted to international users, while Americans were blocked from accessing it directly. Recent developments, however, indicate that Polymarket is working toward re-entering the U.S. market legally. According to people familiar with the situation, the platform is seeking registration under the Commodity Exchange Act or a no-action letter from the CFTC. Either pathway would allow Americans to use the service without resorting to offshore workarounds.

Polymarket’s co-founder, Shayne Coplan, stated that active discussions with regulators are ongoing. The timing appears favorable, as the incoming U.S. administration is openly supportive of cryptocurrencies. Michael Selig, the proposed new CFTC chair, is also known for his positive views toward blockchain innovation. These factors have increased confidence that approval could be possible before the end of 2025.

Polymarket’s growth since 2023 highlights the rising popularity of blockchain prediction markets. The platform’s trading volume reached 1.2 billion dollars in 2024, representing a 500 percent jump from the previous year. New partnerships, including collaborations with Kalshi, suggest an interest in creating more regulated pathways for prediction markets to operate within the United States.

These trends indicate a broader transformation. Instead of prediction markets staying in regulatory grey areas, platforms are now pursuing official recognition. Such recognition would allow the industry to expand by attracting institutional players who prefer transparent and compliant systems.

How a Polymarket U.S. Comeback Could Transform the Prediction Market Landscape

A successful U.S. return would reshape the prediction market landscape. Everyday users who previously had limited access would be able to participate legally and with greater confidence. This change could significantly increase the number of participants, especially during major political events, sports seasons, and global economic announcements.

Institutions may also consider entering the space if Polymarket secures regulatory approval. Blockchain technology offers greater transparency compared to traditional systems, reducing the risk of manipulation. With more investors and platforms participating, prediction markets could grow from a niche sector into a major financial category.

If Polymarket continues to scale, analysts believe the platform could reach 10 billion dollars in annual volume by 2026, with prediction markets becoming a normal part of financial analysis and public forecasting. However, the outcome depends heavily on regulatory decisions. A rejection or significant delay could slow growth and push users back to unregulated offshore alternatives.