Selling Pressure at Resistance, Can Dogecoin Hold Its Ground Before a Rally?

Dogecoin is once again in the spotlight as it approaches an important price level that could decide whether it moves higher or faces another pullback. After enjoying an 18% surge in early September, the popular meme-inspired cryptocurrency is now trading near $0.2623. The problem is that Dogecoin has been stuck below $0.40, a price level that has acted as strong resistance. Traders are now debating whether this will be the point where selling pressure forces the coin down or if it will finally clear the barrier and set the stage for a much larger rally later in 2025.

Data shows that trading momentum remains mixed. On one hand, there are signs that long-term holders are easing up on selling, with on-chain trackers noting a sharp decline in older coins being moved onto exchanges. This drop in selling from experienced holders could reduce downward pressure and allow the price to stabilize. On the other hand, Dogecoin has a history of sharp corrections when traders rush to take profits. Earlier in 2025, the coin lost about 10% in value within a week after falling below $0.22, which was triggered by technical weakness and a bearish signal on the moving average charts. Those memories keep many traders cautious.

Still, not all the signals are negative. Some technical indicators point to growing buying interest. The Chaikin Money Flow index, shows that more money is moving into the asset than leaving it, hinting that demand may be building. A push above $0.44 could open the way for Dogecoin to reach $0.50 in the near term. Fueling this optimism is the launch of a new Dogecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) called the REX-Osprey DOGE ETF, which officially will go live in September. Market odds place the chance of regulatory success for this ETF at more than 90%, creating a wave of bullish sentiment among traders and institutions who see it as a pathway to wider adoption.

Even so, Dogecoin is no longer just a meme coin. The ecosystem is slowly expanding into areas with real-world applications. A treasury fund worth $175 million, overseen by figures close to Elon Musk, has been set up to manage Dogecoin’s development and investments. Institutional players such as Thumzup have also committed tens of millions of dollars to Dogecoin mining projects, signaling that some large investors see potential in its long-term growth. This growing seriousness contrasts with the coin’s playful origins and suggests that the foundations for sustained value are being laid.

The road ahead, however, is not without obstacles. Technical charts show that Dogecoin is at risk of being overbought, with the Relative Strength Index climbing above 69. When this happens, it often signals that a pullback may occur before the next leg higher. Analysts warn that if the price falls under especially under $0.22, bearish momentum could return quickly. In that case, Dogecoin might slide further, possibly revisiting the $0.20 range unless strong buying support emerges.

What makes this moment particularly important is the connection between Dogecoin’s price action and the broader crypto environment. In the past, approvals of ETFs for assets like Bitcoin have triggered major rallies by attracting institutional capital. If Dogecoin’s ETF succeeds in drawing similar interest, it could replicate those gains and give the coin a more stable market base. This would mark a shift from Dogecoin being driven purely by retail traders and celebrity tweets to being supported by structured financial products and professional investors.

Dogecoin’s Next Big Test

Traders are closely watching Dogecoin’s price as it approaches an important range between $0.44 and $0.50. If it can break past this level, many believe the coin could climb toward $0.70 in the next stage of its rally. Some even suggest that if large institutions adopt it and everyday investors return with strong interest, Dogecoin might reach as high as $1 by 2026. Still, this outcome is far from certain. Factors like delays in regulations, big holders selling for profit, and risky bets made with too much leverage could all trigger sudden price drops.

Even with these risks, Dogecoin remains one of the most talked-about cryptocurrencies. Part of its appeal comes from how unpredictable it is, reflecting both the excitement and the volatility of the crypto market. Over the years, it has survived major downturns, reshaped itself with the help of its active community, and moved closer to mainstream adoption through financial products such as ETFs. The current momentum suggests that the months ahead could be critical in deciding whether Dogecoin sets off on a new upward path or falls back under heavy selling pressure.

Right now, the $0.40 level is seen as a key point. Moving firmly above it would show renewed strength from buyers and could open the way to higher prices. But if Dogecoin fails to hold above this level, it may need more time to stabilize before attempting another strong rally. Whatever happens, Dogecoin’s progress is shaping up to be one of the most closely followed stories in digital assets, with its next chapter about to unfold.