The economy is complex, but everything is also simple, so he tells people. Harry Dent focuses on the most specific driving factors, which are always a few. Most economists will tell you that nobody can predict the economy, especially the ongoing crypto crash, beyond the next election because it’s all politics, but debt doesn’t look at politics. Because there are prominent aggregate trends at the macro level, it is much easier to predict what will occur in the long run than in the short run. On the other hand, forecasting the near future is notoriously tricky because economic and political forces may substantially influence the outcome.
At the beginning of the 1980s, Dent shifted from providing business consulting services on a large scale to engaging in entrepreneurial endeavors on a smaller scale. Through the marketing efforts of small-scale enterprises that catered to young members of the baby boom generation at the time, he learned about the baby boom generation and how massive it would become as it developed. Recessions are a correction when businesses go along. The most recent occurred in the years 29 to 32, and the one before that occurred from 1835 to 1843. Every ninety years or so, super bubbles and super collapses occur, and they are the cause of depressions rather than recessions. A recession is shaking out a complete bubble, which has produced much debt. To survive a recession, we need only to purge our possessions and eliminate some bad debts and companies.
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Since bubbles increase financial assets, it is unlikely that real estate or stocks will ever recover to their pre-boom levels. If we see new highs because the next generation is not as large as the baby boomers, it will only take us back, and they will have their boom in a non-bubble era. That’s a significant problem, so you’ve got to be a better investor in this climate.All bubbles eventually return to reality, which is suitable for millennials. Last night, I talked with a younger person and her father at a cocktail party. They said,
“You’re the winner here, if right. All of us baby boomers who own all this overvalued crap will lose our asses, and you’ll be able to buy a house for the first time for half the price.”
In the case of bitcoin, a substantial number of individuals believe that bitcoin is not an untraceable coin but rather an industry in its own right. In its infancy, Dent compares bitcoin to oversimplify to amazon.com commerce in the last digital bubble. There were the stars; it started with the Nasdaq, and blood technology was the winner. In the end, amazon and the dot-com guys were the new things. The latest craze, cryptocurrency, is still in its infancy. Amazon was still practically entirely selling books at that time. Therefore, this is how Dent analyses the scenario, and he uses Amazon as an example, stating, “Okay, here’s what may happen to bitcoin, knowing that Amazon did crash.”If the value of gold as a financial asset is equal to or greater than that of stocks, the value of all other financial assets, except treasury bonds, will decline. However, gold will be better able to withstand a fifty per cent decline. Gold’s best correlation is inflation because of the growing average age of people in industrialized countries. Inflation peaked in the 1970s when baby boomers were young and expensive to the economy.
You only have two to three years to protect your assets and hunker down because everything will be discounted if you do. Financial asset’s largest crisis since 29 to 32, we have one of the most potent longer-term cycles in human history.
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