Trump’s Pardon Gamble: Will Sam Bankman-Fried Walk Free Amid Pro-Crypto Politics?

The crypto world is once again divided, this time over the possibility of a presidential pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the former CEO of the collapsed FTX exchange. According to Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, the odds of former U.S. President Donald Trump pardoning SBF have jumped to 25% in October 2025. This sudden rise followed Trump’s recent decision to commute the prison sentence of another major crypto figure, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ). The news sparked speculation that SBF, once one of the most influential figures in crypto, now serving 25 years in prison for fraud, might also receive mercy.

For many in the crypto community, this development feels both shocking and symbolic. It represents a deeper question, should people who played major roles in crypto’s rise and fall be punished strictly by the law, or forgiven in the name of innovation and progress?

Sam Bankman-Fried was once celebrated as a visionary entrepreneur. His exchange, FTX, was one of the largest in the world before it collapsed in late 2022. Investigations revealed that SBF had misused over $8 billion in customer funds. In 2024, he was convicted on seven counts of fraud and conspiracy and sentenced to 25 years in prison. While the sentence was severe, critics argued it was too lenient compared to the damage caused to investors. Others saw it as an opportunity for SBF to reflect and possibly rebuild trust in the long term. Now, as the odds of a pardon rise, many are wondering whether this could change how the U.S. treats major figures in the crypto industry.

Donald Trump’s stance on cryptocurrency has shifted dramatically over time. During his previous presidency, he was skeptical of digital currencies. But since 2024, his tone has changed. He has become increasingly supportive of Bitcoin and blockchain technology, even issuing an executive order in July 2025 to build a U.S. Bitcoin reserve. He has also issued pardons to other controversial figures from the crypto world, such as Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road. These actions have led many traders and political analysts to believe that a pardon for SBF might be possible, especially as Trump seeks to attract pro-crypto voters ahead of the next election.

The potential pardon also raises questions about the future of crypto governance. A lenient stance toward figures like SBF could encourage more entrepreneurs to take risks, possibly leading to innovation and growth. But it could also weaken accountability, suggesting that major financial crimes might be forgiven if they are wrapped in the language of innovation.

The White House has not made any official comment on the matter. According to reports, SBF has not yet filed a formal request for a pardon, though his allies are said to be lobbying behind the scenes. As of now, Polymarket traders give a one-in-four chance that Trump will issue a pardon before the end of his term. Whether this will become a turning point or simply another chapter in crypto’s dramatic history remains uncertain.

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried

The rising odds of an SBF pardon highlight the growing influence of crypto politics in Washington. What was once a fringe industry now sits at the center of national debate. A pardon could bring new energy to the sector, but it also risks reopening old wounds about trust and accountability. Whether Trump’s decision leans toward mercy or justice, one thing is clear the crypto industry is no longer just about technology and markets. It’s about power, politics, and how forgiveness can change the course of financial history.