Vladimir aka Lado Okhotnikov reflects on the AI threats to our civilization
Is Mankind on the Verge of Creating a New Superweapon? Vladimir aka Lado Okhotnikov reflects on the threats to our civilization
Mankind is on the verge of creating a superweapon comparable in importance to nuclear weapons. The rapid development of neural networks and metaverses does not go unnoticed by the military departments. Experts say that now there is a merciless race for superiority in the creation of a fundamentally new weapon. What are the threats of its emergence and how do the authorities generally use artificial intelligence?
Vladimir aka Lado Okhotnikov – leading expert on blockchain and AI, developer of Meta Force Metaverse, one of those who shape the future.
The topic of neural networks began to hit the pages of the world media a few years ago. This was mainly news about new achievements, areas of AI application and its rapid development.
However, on March 22, 2023, a letter was published signed by Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, Evan Sharp and over a thousand more experts in which they called for the suspension of research in the field of AI, until clear, common rules for application and development are developed. Now the website has around 34 thousand subscribers.
At the end of April, the “godfather” of artificial intelligence, Jeffrey Hinton, left Google with a series of high-profile announcements.
In addition to fears for the citizens’ personal data in connection with the development of a ChatGPT competitor by Google, he expressed confidence that in the near future generative AI will be able to purposefully and massively fill the information space with false information which will lead to the fact that we will not know the real facts.
He also said that modern technologies allow the creation of autonomous weapons that will be controlled by a neural network, which can lead to disaster if the system fails.
It became clear to many that AI is not such a harmless invention, and the point here is not so much in personal data, but in the fact that it can develop independently and what this will lead to is unknown. How can you not remember the Terminator and Skynet?
A heated discussion ensued in the expert community, some were scared of the Apocalypse, some on the contrary said that it was okay and some perceived the process of AI development with a share of fatalism.
“Unfortunately, most of mankind still does not fully understand what benefits, but at the same time, dangers the AI bears.
Let’s take Bitcoin as an example. Back then, in the beginning no one did not understand its potential and value and if people began to understand, then they couldn’t be sure.
After all, at first it did not cost anything at all, then at the start its price was equal to one five-thousandth share of an ordinary pizza. No one had 100% reliable information about the great future of bitcoin – all this, coupled with technology, made it possible to secure absolutely total decentralization for bitcoin. What creates its real value. And it threatens the traditional state financial system…”
Vladimir aka Lado Okhotnikov
The same with AI, it can bring both benefits and threats, including the state. Now, the vast majority of Earthmen are not aware of its potential. We are all still Neanderthals of the digital world, in fact, only the second generation is growing with the Internet. Here we are now approaching the next stage of digital evolution. And as always, joys and disappointments will await us along the way.
A possible war of artificial intelligence was discussed ahead of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022.
“The extensive application of AI in warfare is arguably inevitable, which will likely escalate from a limited conventional or proxy war into a rapidly spiraling high-tech war on the one hand and magnify miscalculation and misinformation on the other.”
Director of the John L. Thornton China Center
of the Brookings Institution
That is, we are not talking about unmanned vehicles, and even about a partially autonomous flotilla or cyborg division.
It’s too easy for our difficult times!
When the supercomputer (in 1997) Deep Blue beat G. Kasparov in six games, it was a shock to many – not only chess lovers, but also ordinary people. People realized that another era has come. The human brain has some limits and the machine will develop further.
Google’s new quantum computer can complete 47 years of computational tasks in just 6 seconds. This is 241 million times faster than Google’s 2019 version. But this is a single instance, an experimental sample, but in the meantime everyone needs chips for development.
Now the machine can compete not with the human brain but with its intellect. That is, independently develop, “think”, analyze, and draw conclusions.
It’s no secret that most of the inventions adapted for use in everyday life were first used for military or space purposes.
Almost the same thing is happening now. Neural networks like ChatGPT have been adapted for mass use, but what is going on in the military departments, what developments are being carried out there?
“Imagine a neural network of gigantic power, which receives hundreds of millions of facts about a specific enemy every day: from intelligence to a small incident in a remote village. Literally everything is analyzed and it is done in the shortest possible time.
Thus, it is possible with the highest degree of probability to predict the actions of the enemy. Possible political or economic crises, mass discontent, etc. And the one whose AI is more powerful and “smarter” will be able not only to predict, but also to take certain measures to aggravate or resolve the situation…”
Vladimir aka Lado Okhotnikov
Of course, intelligence has been doing this at all times. However, data collection and analysis took a lot of time: entire institutes and departments worked for this. Moreover, now it takes only a few minutes to solve a problem that used to take, say, a month. So also the array of processed information is ways more, which means the analysis is more accurate.
The leading powers understood everything long ago and began
Smart weapons race
Remember the global semiconductor shortage in 2020-2202? Whatever they called it the cause: COVID, miners, manufacturers of electric vehicles and game consoles, etc.
Of course, these factors played a role and now let’s turn to dry statistics.
The volume of private investments in AI development from 2013 to 2021 amounted to $140 billion in the United States and $62 billion in China.
The lion’s share of these investments has come in recent years. It is also worth noting the difference in the military structures of the US and China. If in the United States the military department concludes a contract with a specialized private company for the development or production of something, then in China there are state-owned military-industrial complex enterprises whose funding is not disclosed, so one can only guess how much the government of China invests in AI development.
But another table can shed light on this mystery.
The number of Chinese patent applications in 2021 was 52% of the total, while in 2010 this figure was only 12%. A giant leap but at the same time investments are more than half as much. It turns out a lot of public investments pump heavenly neural networks.
What is the connection between the shortage of semiconductors and the development of AI? The most direct one is that enterprises producing high-tech products are being restructured to meet the needs of AI developers. Accordingly, the number of manufactured processors for other IT segments is declining.
The most recent example, Nvidia’s Q2 report, posted a gigantic profit of $13.5 billion, up nearly 90% from Q1.
The capitalization of the company on such news grew by 10%, exceeding $1.16 trillion and its happy founder Jensen Huang stated, “The race for artificial intelligence has begun.”
Be reminded that in recent years the company has been switching to the manufacturing of processors for AI and VR.
Struggle and peaceful AI: assessment by Vladimir Okhotnikov
“The race has not just begun but is already moving into a hot phase. The fact is that there were four centers for the manufacturing of high-tech processors in the world: Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan. These centers use American and, to a lesser extent, Dutch technologies…”
In October 2022, the US imposed sanctions against Chinese AI developers, depriving them of access to the latest chips. These included Nvidia A100 chips and the latest H100.
Now only Nvidia A800 and H800 chips are available in the Chinese market which can only support low-level neural networks.
Following these and other sanctions, China has announced that it will now tighten controls on the export of materials for the production of semiconductors.
The US responded by restricting Chinese companies’ access to cloud computing power and issuing regulations on Chinese investors interested in neural network startups.
“In general, the confrontation is still growing. Whether the parties will come to some kind of compromise and at what boiling point this will happen probably can already be predicted now by some kind of neural network but, alas, we will be able to check the forecast only after the event has happened…”
In the meantime, states are measuring artificial intelligence, it gradually and inevitably enters our lives.
The same ChatGPT for many has become an excellent assistant in programming, design, copywriting. Many already perceive him as an interlocutor.
Soon you won’t imagine business without AI too. According to a CFP survey published on August 22, about 31% of American investors trust recommendations from AI, while 80% noted that the recommendations contributed to successful financial transactions, and 11% are completely confident that neural networks will soon completely oust traditional consultants from the market.
In general, artificial intelligence is already among us. What future awaits us at the next stage of digital evolution (as Vladimir Okhotnikov noted)? Maybe everything has already been calculated on a giant secret superweapon and now we just have to abide fate?